Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? — live odds
"Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" is trading at a 12% implied probability, with YES at 12¢ and NO at 89¢. $3.2M has changed hands so far, $5K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
12%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$5K
24h volume
$3.2M
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 12¢ and NO at 89¢, an implied probability of 12% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$3.2M has been traded in total, $5K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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