Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? — live odds
"Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?" is trading at a 5% implied probability, with YES at 5¢ and NO at 96¢. $763K has changed hands so far, $317 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
5%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$317
24h volume
$763K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 5¢ and NO at 96¢, an implied probability of 5% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$763K has been traded in total, $317 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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