Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? — final odds

Resolved NO · August 4, 2026Final price 1¢ YES — the market gave this a 1% implied probability.

"Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?" resolved NO on August 4, 2026 at a final price of 1¢ YES — a 1% implied probability — after $35K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 99¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

24h volume

$35K

total volume

Aug 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±19.2¢ swing band
33d ago
Odds swing
43¢ → 95¢ (+52¢ in 15 min)
33d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Quick answers

How did "Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on August 4, 2026. Its final traded price was 1¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 1¢ — an implied probability of 1%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.