
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? — live odds
5%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$6K
24h volume
$35.0M
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 21d ago
High volatility
±41.4¢ swing band
- 21d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 3¢ (-96.3¢ in 15 min)
- 21d ago
Volume spike
$46 traded — 7.6× the average
- 21d ago
Volume spike
$55 traded — 9.1× the average
- 21d ago
High volatility
±22.1¢ swing band
- 21d ago
Odds swing
90¢ → 2¢ (-88¢ in 15 min)
- 21d ago
High volatility
±54.5¢ swing band
- 21d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 30¢ (+29.2¢ in 15 min)
- 21d ago
Volume spike
$54 traded — 9× the average
- 21d ago
High volatility
±19.9¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?"?
The market currently prices YES at 5¢ and NO at 96¢, an implied probability of 5% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$35.0M has been traded in total, $6K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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