Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? live odds

5%

implied probability

YES NO 96¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

24h change

$6K

24h volume

$35.0M

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±41.4¢ swing band

    21d ago
  • Odds swing

    99¢ → 3¢ (-96.3¢ in 15 min)

    21d ago
  • Volume spike

    $46 traded — 7.6× the average

    21d ago
  • Volume spike

    $55 traded — 9.1× the average

    21d ago
  • High volatility

    ±22.1¢ swing band

    21d ago
  • Odds swing

    90¢ → 2¢ (-88¢ in 15 min)

    21d ago
  • High volatility

    ±54.5¢ swing band

    21d ago
  • Odds swing

    1¢ → 30¢ (+29.2¢ in 15 min)

    21d ago
  • Volume spike

    $54 traded — 9× the average

    21d ago
  • High volatility

    ±19.9¢ swing band

    21d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?"?

The market currently prices YES at 5¢ and NO at 96¢, an implied probability of 5% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$35.0M has been traded in total, $6K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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