Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? — live odds

"Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?" is trading at a 2% implied probability, with YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢. $1.0M has changed hands so far, $216 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 2¢NO 98¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$216

24h volume

$1.0M

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±30.3¢ swing band
86d ago
Odds swing
5¢ → 17¢ (+12¢ in 15 min)
86d ago
High volatility
±32.5¢ swing band
86d ago
Odds swing
52¢ → 78¢ (+26¢ in 15 min)
86d ago
High volatility
±23.7¢ swing band
86d ago
High volatility
±12.4¢ swing band
86d ago
Odds swing
78¢ → 3¢ (-75¢ in 15 min)
86d ago
conviction signal
86d ago
High volatility
±36.2¢ swing band
86d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.