Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? — live odds

"Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?" is trading at a 8% implied probability, with YES at 8¢ and NO at 93¢. $742K has changed hands so far, $162 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 8¢NO 93¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$162

24h volume

$742K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±6.1¢ swing band
43d ago
High volatility
±19.4¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 70¢ (+67¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±17.9¢ swing band
43d ago
High volatility
±16.7¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
71¢ → 5¢ (-66¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±20.2¢ swing band
43d ago
Odds swing
90¢ → 2¢ (-88¢ in 15 min)
43d ago
High volatility
±29.5¢ swing band
43d ago
High volatility
±21¢ swing band
43d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.