Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? — live odds
"Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $872K has changed hands so far, $12K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
0%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$12K
24h volume
$872K
total volume
Jul 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$872K has been traded in total, $12K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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