Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? — live odds

"Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?" is trading at a 8% implied probability, with YES at 8¢ and NO at 92¢. $75K has changed hands so far, $4K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 8¢NO 92¢

recent price

+3¢ over the window

+3¢

24h change

$4K

24h volume

$75K

total volume

Nov 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vivek Ramaswamy campaign pulls its advertisement featuring Amy Acton's mother between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The advertisement will be considered pulled if either of the following occurs within this market's timeframe: Vivek Ramaswamy or an authorized representative of his campaign publicly announces that the campaign has stopped, or will stop, airing the advertisement; or a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the campaign has pulled, withdrawn, or stopped airing the advertisement on television. Replacing the advertisement with a new or edited version that no longer features Amy Acton's mother will qualify. Editing the advertisement while it continues to feature Amy Acton's mother will not qualify. The following will not qualify: removal of the advertisement from social media or other online platforms while it continues to air on television; a reduction in spending or airtime that does not stop the advertisement from airing; the advertisement leaving the air because its previously scheduled ad buy has ended, unless the campaign or a consensus of credible reporting describes the advertisement as having been pulled or withdrawn; removal by a television station, platform, or court order rather than by the campaign; and the airing or removal of any advertisement by a third party not affiliated with the Ramaswamy campaign. If the campaign announces that it will stop airing the advertisement, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when the advertisement actually stops airing. A subsequent decision to resume airing the advertisement will not change a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Vivek Ramaswamy and his campaign, including official websites, verified social media accounts, interviews, and press conferences; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.