Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? — live odds

Part of California Governor Election Winner· see all 23 outcomes →📲 Open in app

93%

implied probability

YES 93¢NO 7¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$471

24h volume

$1.7M

total volume

Nov 3, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
95¢ → 10¢ (-84.8¢ in 15 min)
32d ago
High volatility
±12.4¢ swing band
32d ago
Odds swing
20¢ → 40¢ (+20¢ in 15 min)
32d ago
Odds swing
90¢ → 98¢ (+8.6¢ in 15 min)
32d ago
High volatility
±26.3¢ swing band
32d ago
Odds swing
90¢ → 10¢ (-79.6¢ in 15 min)
32d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 18¢ (+17.7¢ in 15 min)
32d ago
High volatility
±19.2¢ swing band
32d ago
Odds swing
20¢ → 30¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
32d ago
High volatility
±38¢ swing band
32d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.