Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31? — live odds
"Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?" is trading at a 94% implied probability, with YES at 94¢ and NO at 6¢. $42K has changed hands so far, $13K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
94%
implied probability
recent price
-2¢ over the window
-2¢
24h change
$13K
24h volume
$42K
total volume
Oct 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 94¢ and NO at 6¢, an implied probability of 94% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by October 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$42K has been traded in total, $13K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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