Xi Jinping out before 2027? — live odds

"Xi Jinping out before 2027?" is trading at a 5% implied probability, with YES at 5¢ and NO at 95¢. $13.0M has changed hands so far, $40K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 5¢NO 95¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$40K

24h volume

$13.0M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±26.6¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 68¢ (+63.8¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±65.7¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
6¢ → 35¢ (+29.2¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±32.7¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 95¢ (+25¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±44¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
60¢ → 96¢ (+35.9¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±30.7¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
40¢ → 0¢ (-39.8¢ in 15 min)
77d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.