TL;DR
- 🐋 $100.9K whale buy hits Counter-Strike market, price follows 19¢
- Ethereum $2,000 August odds drop 50¢ to 47¢
- Wicked: For Good movie market volume spikes 220x
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August? | ▼ -50¢ | 47¢ (47%) | - |
| The Odyssey domestic gross $550m-$570m? | ▲ +47¢ | 77.5¢ (77.5%) | - |
| LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) | ▼ -41¢ | 8.5¢ (8.5%) | - |
The market on whether Ethereum will reach $2,000 in August saw a significant repricing, with its implied probability dropping 50¢ to 47¢. This move reflects a shift in market sentiment regarding ETH's short-term price trajectory.
🐋 Whale watch
The largest single trade of the past 24 hours was a substantial BUY of $100,900.60 in the Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) market. This large volume pushed the market price up by 19¢, indicating that the trade was absorbed with significant impact. For more context on tracking such large flows, refer to our whale watching guide.
Another notable trade was a $45,738.06 SELL in the UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson market, moving the price 6.9¢. Meanwhile, a $38,938.86 BUY in the Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August? market was met with a 98¢ price decrease, showing the market absorbing the order against its direction. Understanding these dynamics is key to how to read Polymarket effectively.
📊 Volume spikes
Several markets saw concentrated trading activity. The "Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?" market experienced a massive volume spike, trading at 220.1 times its average daily volume. Similarly, the "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" market saw volume at 51.7 times its average. These spikes indicate focused interest, often driven by new information or rapidly shifting expectations, particularly within tech prediction markets.
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several esports and political markets are nearing resolution. The Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) market concludes today at 14:10 UTC. Political markets concerning Republican nominees for Florida Governor, including James Fishback, are set to resolve on August 18th.
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