TL;DR
- 🐋 $96.9K position taken on Kamala Harris 2028 nomination contract as YES drops 38.4¢
- Clarity Act market registers a 692.4× volume spike on $12,002.66 of activity
- Over $80M in Brazilian presidential election contracts resolve within the next 24 hours
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: CTRL Esports vs Passion Academy | ▼ -40.9¢ | 3.6¢ (3.6%) |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | ▼ -38.4¢ | 6.65¢ (6.65%) |
| Counter-Strike: 9z vs TYLOO | ▲ +35.0¢ | 90.5¢ (90.5%) |
| Counter-Strike: mellren vs Spirit Academy | ▼ -30.0¢ | 29.5¢ (29.5%) |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? | ▼ -28.5¢ | 11.5¢ (11.5%) |
The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination contract experienced the session's most significant political repricing, with YES shedding 38.4¢ to sit at 6.65¢. Analysts monitoring shifting election betting odds can review our primer on how to read Polymarket to track how thin liquidity magnifies off-cycle political swings.
🐋 Whale watch
Block trades accounted for major repricing events over the last 24 hours:
- $96,932.19 BUY on Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?, where price impact registered at -85.9¢ as incoming volume met heavy limit offers.
- $56,666.67 SELL on Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?, driving a price decline of 99.5¢.
- $32,050.00 BUY on Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 4?, shifting YES upward by 99.7¢. Check the Bitcoin price target tracker for adjacent price bands.
- $30,000.00 SELL on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?, shifting price down 68.0¢.
For a deeper look at order book imbalances, check our whale watching guide.
📊 Volume spikes
| Market | Volume | vs average |
|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | $12,002.66 | 692.4× |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 September 28-October 4? | $2,068.00 | 104.2× |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | $555.00 | 21.1× |
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several major political contracts settle in the next 24 hours. The 2026 Brazilian presidential election slate concludes early on October 5, featuring Renan Santos ($16.8M volume), Tarcisio de Freitas ($14.8M volume), and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ($14.8M volume) among the resolving markets.
PolyWatch pushes whale trades like these the moment they land — free on iOS and Android.
