Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — live odds

Part of Brazil Presidential Election· see all 17 outcomes →📲 Open in app

62%

implied probability

YES 62¢NO 38¢

recent price

-2¢ over the window

-2¢

24h change

$16K

24h volume

$7.5M

total volume

Oct 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$100 traded — 8.6× the average
23m ago
High volatility
±56.4¢ swing band
26m ago
High volatility
±54.1¢ swing band
41m ago
High volatility
±16.8¢ swing band
56m ago
Volume spike
$228 traded — 19.7× the average
1h ago
High volatility
±20.7¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±19.9¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±30.3¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
30¢ → 64¢ (+34¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±55.6¢ swing band
2h ago

How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).