Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? — live odds

"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" is trading at a 19% implied probability, with YES at 19¢ and NO at 81¢. $15.1M has changed hands so far, $502K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

19%

implied probability

YES 19¢NO 81¢

recent price

+2¢ over the window

+2¢

24h change

$502K

24h volume

$15.1M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±29.8¢ swing band
24m ago
Odds swing
90¢ → 24¢ (-66¢ in 15 min)
24m ago
High volatility
±4.2¢ swing band
39m ago
High volatility
±35.4¢ swing band
54m ago
High volatility
±16.9¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±28.6¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
73¢ → 99¢ (+26¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±35.2¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
18¢ → 98¢ (+80¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±6.1¢ swing band
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.