Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? — live odds
"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" is trading at a 29% implied probability, with YES at 28¢ and NO at 72¢. $2.9M has changed hands so far, $102K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
29%
implied probability
recent price
-5¢ over the window
-5¢
24h change
$102K
24h volume
$2.9M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 28¢ and NO at 72¢, an implied probability of 29% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$2.9M has been traded in total, $102K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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