Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? — live odds

Part of Fed rate hike by...?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?" is trading at a 62% implied probability, with YES at 62¢ and NO at 39¢. $617K has changed hands so far, $19K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 9, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.

62%

implied probability

YES 62¢NO 39¢

recent price

-5¢ over the window

-5¢

24h change

$19K

24h volume

$617K

total volume

Dec 9, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±14.7¢ swing band
64d ago
Odds swing
93¢ → 45¢ (-48¢ in 15 min)
64d ago
High volatility
±13.1¢ swing band
64d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 44¢ (-55¢ in 15 min)
64d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.