Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? — live odds

Part of Fed rate hike by...?· see all 3 outcomes →📲 Open in app

57%

implied probability

YES 57¢NO 43¢

recent price

+14¢ over the window

+14¢

24h change

$17K

24h volume

$278K

total volume

Dec 9, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±14.7¢ swing band
19d ago
Odds swing
93¢ → 45¢ (-48¢ in 15 min)
19d ago
High volatility
±13.1¢ swing band
19d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 44¢ (-55¢ in 15 min)
19d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.