
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 5? — final odds
"Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 5?" resolved NO on August 5, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $38K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
0%
implied probability
recent price
+2¢ over the window
+2¢
24h change
$29K
24h volume
$38K
total volume
Aug 5, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 3h ago
High volatility
±40.7¢ swing band
- 3h ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 97¢ (+95¢ in 15 min)
- 3h ago
High volatility
±35.9¢ swing band
- 3h ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 60¢ (+59.7¢ in 15 min)
- 4h ago
Volume spike
$70 traded — 3.6× the average
- 4h ago
High volatility
±52.5¢ swing band
- 4h ago
High volatility
±9.1¢ swing band
- 4h ago
High volatility
±57.1¢ swing band
- 4h ago
Odds swing
98¢ → 2¢ (-96¢ in 15 min)
- 4h ago
High volatility
±33.5¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Quick answers
How did "Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 5?" resolve?
This market resolved NO on August 5, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$38K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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