Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 5? final odds

Resolved YES · September 5, 2026Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

"Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 5?" resolved YES on September 5, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $26K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO

recent price

+97¢ over the window

+97¢

24h change

$22K

24h volume

$26K

total volume

Sep 5, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±51.3¢ swing band

    2h ago
  • Odds swing

    85¢ → 4¢ (-81¢ in 15 min)

    2h ago
  • High volatility

    ±27.9¢ swing band

    2h ago
  • Odds swing

    3¢ → 100¢ (+96.9¢ in 15 min)

    2h ago
  • High volatility

    ±23.6¢ swing band

    3h ago
  • High volatility

    ±42.2¢ swing band

    3h ago
  • High volatility

    ±54.1¢ swing band

    3h ago
  • Volume spike

    $200 traded — 12.5× the average

    3h ago
  • High volatility

    ±23.5¢ swing band

    3h ago
  • High volatility

    ±16.2¢ swing band

    4h ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Quick answers

How did "Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 5?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on September 5, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$26K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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