Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7? final odds

This market has ended · August 7, 2026Final price 41¢ YES — the market gave this a 41% implied probability.

"Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7?" resolved on August 7, 2026 at a final price of 41¢ YES — a 41% implied probability — after $33K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

41%

implied probability

YES 41¢NO 60¢

recent price

+5¢ over the window

+5¢

24h change

$26K

24h volume

$33K

total volume

Aug 7, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±24.3¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    43¢ → 3¢ (-40¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±16.8¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±18.2¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    66¢ → 43¢ (-23¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • conviction signal

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±22.1¢ swing band

    1d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

How did "Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7?" resolve?

This market ended on August 7, 2026 with a final traded price of 41¢ YES (41% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 41¢ — an implied probability of 41%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$33K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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