
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31? — final odds
"Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31?" resolved on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 56¢ YES — a 56% implied probability — after $31K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
56%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$21K
24h volume
$31K
total volume
Jul 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 7h ago
High volatility
±44.9¢ swing band
- 7h ago
Odds swing
57¢ → 86¢ (+29¢ in 15 min)
- 7h ago
High volatility
±4.6¢ swing band
- 7h ago
High volatility
±25.4¢ swing band
- 7h ago
Odds swing
46¢ → 60¢ (+14¢ in 15 min)
- 7h ago
Volume spike
$19 traded — 3.8× the average
- 7h ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.13¢ vs 0.0415¢ normal
- 7h ago
High volatility
±28.1¢ swing band
- 7h ago
Odds swing
56¢ → 64¢ (+8.5¢ in 15 min)
- 8h ago
High volatility
±7.2¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Quick answers
How did "Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31?" resolve?
This market ended on July 31, 2026 with a final traded price of 56¢ YES (56% implied probability).
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 56¢ — an implied probability of 56%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$31K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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