
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 19? — live odds
"Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 19?" is trading at a 17% implied probability, with YES at 17¢ and NO at 83¢. $5K has changed hands so far, $3K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 19, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.
17%
implied probability
recent price
+1¢ over the window
+1¢
24h change
$3K
24h volume
$5K
total volume
Aug 19, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 2m ago
Volume spike
$60 traded — 25.4× the average
- 5m ago
High volatility
±15¢ swing band
- 20m ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 20¢ (+8¢ in 15 min)
- 26m ago
Volume spike
$10 traded — 4.3× the average
- 35m ago
High volatility
±25.9¢ swing band
- 50m ago
Odds swing
38¢ → 14¢ (-24¢ in 15 min)
- 1h ago
High volatility
±11.2¢ swing band
- 1h ago
Volume spike
$10 traded — 4.3× the average
- 1h ago
Volume spike
$349 traded — 157.7× the average
- 1h ago
High volatility
±17.8¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 19?"?
The market currently prices YES at 17¢ and NO at 83¢, an implied probability of 17% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by August 19, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
How much has been traded on this market?
$5K has been traded in total, $3K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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