
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 19? — live odds
"Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 19?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at — and NO at —. $1K has changed hands so far, $819 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 19, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.
0%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$819
24h volume
$1K
total volume
Aug 19, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 19?"?
The market currently prices YES at — and NO at —, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by August 19, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1K has been traded in total, $819 of it in the last 24 hours.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app
Related Science markets
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
6%
Human moon landing in 2026?
1%
New pandemic in 2026?
6%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
3%
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
0%