Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 31? final odds

This market has ended · July 31, 2026Final price 32¢ YES — the market gave this a 32% implied probability.

"Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 31?" resolved on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 32¢ YES — a 32% implied probability — after $27K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

32%

implied probability

YES 32¢NO 68¢

recent price

+64¢ over the window

+64¢

24h change

$19K

24h volume

$27K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±30.8¢ swing band

    6h ago
  • Odds swing

    32¢ → 90¢ (+58¢ in 15 min)

    6h ago
  • High volatility

    ±29.6¢ swing band

    7h ago
  • Odds swing

    31¢ → 98¢ (+67.5¢ in 15 min)

    7h ago
  • High volatility

    ±7.9¢ swing band

    7h ago
  • High volatility

    ±5.4¢ swing band

    7h ago
  • High volatility

    ±14.3¢ swing band

    7h ago
  • High volatility

    ±10.8¢ swing band

    8h ago
  • High volatility

    ±6.7¢ swing band

    8h ago
  • Odds swing

    42¢ → 15¢ (-27¢ in 15 min)

    8h ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

How did "Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 31?" resolve?

This market ended on July 31, 2026 with a final traded price of 32¢ YES (32% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 32¢ — an implied probability of 32%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$27K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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