
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 31? — final odds
"Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 31?" resolved on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 32¢ YES — a 32% implied probability — after $27K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
32%
implied probability
recent price
+64¢ over the window
+64¢
24h change
$19K
24h volume
$27K
total volume
Jul 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 6h ago
High volatility
±30.8¢ swing band
- 6h ago
Odds swing
32¢ → 90¢ (+58¢ in 15 min)
- 7h ago
High volatility
±29.6¢ swing band
- 7h ago
Odds swing
31¢ → 98¢ (+67.5¢ in 15 min)
- 7h ago
High volatility
±7.9¢ swing band
- 7h ago
High volatility
±5.4¢ swing band
- 7h ago
High volatility
±14.3¢ swing band
- 8h ago
High volatility
±10.8¢ swing band
- 8h ago
High volatility
±6.7¢ swing band
- 8h ago
Odds swing
42¢ → 15¢ (-27¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Quick answers
How did "Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 31?" resolve?
This market ended on July 31, 2026 with a final traded price of 32¢ YES (32% implied probability).
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 32¢ — an implied probability of 32%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$27K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app
Related Science markets
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
6%
Human moon landing in 2026?
1%
New pandemic in 2026?
8%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
12%
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
0%