Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 9? final odds

This market has ended · September 9, 2026Final price 70¢ YES — the market gave this a 70% implied probability.

"Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 9?" resolved on September 9, 2026 at a final price of 70¢ YES — a 70% implied probability — after $13K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

70%

implied probability

YES 70¢NO 30¢

recent price

24h change

$8K

24h volume

$13K

total volume

Sep 9, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±39.1¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    3¢ → 79¢ (+76¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±46.6¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    75¢ → 61¢ (-14¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • Volume spike

    $133 traded — 41.6× the average

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±18.5¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    99¢ → 39¢ (-60¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±45.5¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Volume spike

    $71 traded — 22.8× the average

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±48.1¢ swing band

    1d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

How did "Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 9?" resolve?

This market ended on September 9, 2026 with a final traded price of 70¢ YES (70% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 70¢ — an implied probability of 70%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$13K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Get alerted when this market moves

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