
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 25? — final odds
"Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 25?" resolved on August 25, 2026 at a final price of 34¢ YES — a 34% implied probability — after $31K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
34%
implied probability
recent price
+83¢ over the window
+83¢
24h change
$23K
24h volume
$31K
total volume
Aug 25, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 17h ago
Volume spike
$68 traded — 7.3× the average
- 17h ago
High volatility
±25.1¢ swing band
- 17h ago
Odds swing
33¢ → 3¢ (-30¢ in 15 min)
- 17h ago
High volatility
±4.9¢ swing band
- 17h ago
Odds swing
36¢ → 56¢ (+20¢ in 15 min)
- 18h ago
Volume spike
$60 traded — 6.5× the average
- 18h ago
Odds swing
33¢ → 97¢ (+64¢ in 15 min)
- 18h ago
High volatility
±12¢ swing band
- 18h ago
Odds swing
29¢ → 3¢ (-26¢ in 15 min)
- 18h ago
conviction signal
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Quick answers
How did "Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 25?" resolve?
This market ended on August 25, 2026 with a final traded price of 34¢ YES (34% implied probability).
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 34¢ — an implied probability of 34%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$31K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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