Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 25? final odds

This market has ended · August 25, 2026Final price 34¢ YES — the market gave this a 34% implied probability.

"Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 25?" resolved on August 25, 2026 at a final price of 34¢ YES — a 34% implied probability — after $31K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

34%

implied probability

YES 34¢NO 66¢

recent price

+83¢ over the window

+83¢

24h change

$23K

24h volume

$31K

total volume

Aug 25, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • Volume spike

    $68 traded — 7.3× the average

    17h ago
  • High volatility

    ±25.1¢ swing band

    17h ago
  • Odds swing

    33¢ → 3¢ (-30¢ in 15 min)

    17h ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.9¢ swing band

    17h ago
  • Odds swing

    36¢ → 56¢ (+20¢ in 15 min)

    17h ago
  • Volume spike

    $60 traded — 6.5× the average

    18h ago
  • Odds swing

    33¢ → 97¢ (+64¢ in 15 min)

    18h ago
  • High volatility

    ±12¢ swing band

    18h ago
  • Odds swing

    29¢ → 3¢ (-26¢ in 15 min)

    18h ago
  • conviction signal

    18h ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

How did "Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 25?" resolve?

This market ended on August 25, 2026 with a final traded price of 34¢ YES (34% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 34¢ — an implied probability of 34%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$31K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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