Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 9? final odds

This market has ended · September 9, 2026Final price 49¢ YES — the market gave this a 49% implied probability.

"Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 9?" resolved on September 9, 2026 at a final price of 49¢ YES — a 49% implied probability — after $10K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

49%

implied probability

YES 49¢NO 51¢

recent price

24h change

$6K

24h volume

$10K

total volume

Sep 9, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • Odds swing

    96¢ → 13¢ (-83¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.9¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±13.2¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    22¢ → 38¢ (+16¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • Volume spike

    $12 traded — 10.3× the average

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±32¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    86¢ → 19¢ (-67¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±31.5¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    33¢ → 20¢ (-13¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • Volume spike

    $9 traded — 7.3× the average

    1d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

How did "Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 9?" resolve?

This market ended on September 9, 2026 with a final traded price of 49¢ YES (49% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 49¢ — an implied probability of 49%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$10K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

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