Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 30? final odds

Resolved YES · July 30, 2026Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

"Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 30?" resolved YES on July 30, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $41K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$35K

24h volume

$41K

total volume

Jul 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

How did "Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 30?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on July 30, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$41K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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