Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6? final odds

This market has ended · August 6, 2026Final price 50¢ YES — the market gave this a 50% implied probability.

"Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?" resolved on August 6, 2026 at a final price of 50¢ YES — a 50% implied probability — after $26K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

50%

implied probability

YES 50¢NO 50¢

recent price

-86¢ over the window

-86¢

24h change

$21K

24h volume

$26K

total volume

Aug 6, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±51.1¢ swing band

    5h ago
  • Odds swing

    24¢ → 99¢ (+75¢ in 15 min)

    5h ago
  • High volatility

    ±70.9¢ swing band

    5h ago
  • conviction signal

    5h ago
  • High volatility

    ±76.1¢ swing band

    5h ago
  • Odds swing

    99¢ → 3¢ (-96¢ in 15 min)

    5h ago
  • High volatility

    ±86.4¢ swing band

    6h ago
  • High volatility

    ±82.2¢ swing band

    6h ago
  • Odds swing

    25¢ → 3¢ (-22¢ in 15 min)

    6h ago
  • High volatility

    ±44.1¢ swing band

    6h ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

How did "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?" resolve?

This market ended on August 6, 2026 with a final traded price of 50¢ YES (50% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 50¢ — an implied probability of 50%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$26K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app

Related Science markets