
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29? — final odds
"Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?" resolved YES on July 29, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $30K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
100%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$25K
24h volume
$30K
total volume
Jul 29, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 2h ago
High volatility
±27.7¢ swing band
- 2h ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 100¢ (+96.5¢ in 15 min)
- 2h ago
Volume spike
$1,001 traded — 91× the average
- 2h ago
High volatility
±27.6¢ swing band
- 2h ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 99¢ (+96.2¢ in 15 min)
- 3h ago
High volatility
±49.5¢ swing band
- 3h ago
Volume spike
$466 traded — 43.3× the average
- 3h ago
Volume spike
$100 traded — 9.3× the average
- 3h ago
High volatility
±36.9¢ swing band
- 3h ago
Volume spike
$87 traded — 8.1× the average
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Quick answers
How did "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?" resolve?
This market resolved YES on July 29, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$30K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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