Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29? final odds

Resolved YES · July 29, 2026Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

"Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?" resolved YES on July 29, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $30K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO

recent price

0¢ over the window

24h change

$25K

24h volume

$30K

total volume

Jul 29, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±27.7¢ swing band

    2h ago
  • Odds swing

    3¢ → 100¢ (+96.5¢ in 15 min)

    2h ago
  • Volume spike

    $1,001 traded — 91× the average

    2h ago
  • High volatility

    ±27.6¢ swing band

    2h ago
  • Odds swing

    3¢ → 99¢ (+96.2¢ in 15 min)

    2h ago
  • High volatility

    ±49.5¢ swing band

    3h ago
  • Volume spike

    $466 traded — 43.3× the average

    3h ago
  • Volume spike

    $100 traded — 9.3× the average

    3h ago
  • High volatility

    ±36.9¢ swing band

    3h ago
  • Volume spike

    $87 traded — 8.1× the average

    3h ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

How did "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on July 29, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$30K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app

Related Science markets