Iran leadership change by August 15? — final odds

Resolved NO · August 15, 2026Final price 0¢ YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

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"Iran leadership change by August 15?" resolved NO on August 15, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $61K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$4K

24h volume

$61K

total volume

Aug 15, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Quick answers

How did "Iran leadership change by August 15?" resolve?

This market resolved NO on August 15, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.