Iran leadership change by December 31? — live odds
"Iran leadership change by December 31?" is trading at a 21% implied probability, with YES at 21¢ and NO at 80¢. $3.5M has changed hands so far, $36K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
21%
implied probability
recent price
-5¢ over the window
-5¢
24h change
$36K
24h volume
$3.5M
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Iran leadership change by December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 21¢ and NO at 80¢, an implied probability of 21% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$3.5M has been traded in total, $36K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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