Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — live odds

Part of Iran leadership change by...?· see all 5 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?" is trading at a 26% implied probability, with YES at 26¢ and NO at 75¢. $260K has changed hands so far, $4K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by July 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

26%

implied probability

YES 26¢NO 75¢

recent price

-6¢ over the window

-6¢

24h change

$4K

24h volume

$260K

total volume

Jul 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.