Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 9? final odds

Resolved YES · September 9, 2026Final price 96¢ YES — the market gave this a 96% implied probability.

"Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 9?" resolved YES on September 9, 2026 at a final price of 96¢ YES — a 96% implied probability — after $9K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

96%

implied probability

YES 96¢NO

recent price

24h change

$7K

24h volume

$9K

total volume

Sep 9, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±51.3¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    73¢ → 88¢ (+15.5¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±5.9¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    74¢ → 3¢ (-70.5¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±37.7¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    3¢ → 93¢ (+90¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • Volume spike

    $22 traded — 5.4× the average

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±45.3¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    3¢ → 73¢ (+70¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • Volume spike

    $22 traded — 5.4× the average

    1d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

How did "Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 9?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on September 9, 2026. Its final traded price was 96¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 96¢ — an implied probability of 96%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$9K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

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