Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21? — live odds
"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?" is trading at a 2% implied probability, with YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢. $61K has changed hands so far, $31K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 22, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
2%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$31K
24h volume
$61K
total volume
Nov 22, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?"?
The market currently prices YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢, an implied probability of 2% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by November 22, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$61K has been traded in total, $31K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app
Related Politics markets
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
6%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%