Trump out as President before 2027? — live odds
"Trump out as President before 2027?" is trading at a 6% implied probability, with YES at 6¢ and NO at 94¢. $11.4M has changed hands so far, $31K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
6%
implied probability
recent price
-45¢ over the window
-45¢
24h change
$31K
24h volume
$11.4M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 3m ago
High volatility
±22.7¢ swing band
- 3m ago
Odds swing
35¢ → 70¢ (+35¢ in 15 min)
- 19m ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 4¢ (-66¢ in 15 min)
- 35m ago
High volatility
±23.5¢ swing band
- 50m ago
High volatility
±19¢ swing band
- 50m ago
Odds swing
40¢ → 4¢ (-36¢ in 15 min)
- 1h ago
High volatility
±9.8¢ swing band
- 1h ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 40¢ (+37¢ in 15 min)
- 1h ago
Volume spike
$154 traded — 5.9× the average
- 1h ago
Volume spike
$167 traded — 6.4× the average
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Trump out as President before 2027?"?
The market currently prices YES at 6¢ and NO at 94¢, an implied probability of 6% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$11.4M has been traded in total, $31K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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