Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? — live odds

Part of Next French Presidential Election· see all 41 outcomes →📲 Open in app

60%

implied probability

YES 60¢NO 40¢

recent price

+30¢ over the window

+30¢

24h change

$4K

24h volume

$4.5M

total volume

Apr 30, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
50¢ → 83¢ (+33¢ in 15 min)
9m ago
High volatility
±12.9¢ swing band
24m ago
Odds swing
80¢ → 66¢ (-14¢ in 15 min)
24m ago
High volatility
±17.1¢ swing band
39m ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 70¢ (+59.4¢ in 15 min)
39m ago
High volatility
±13.4¢ swing band
55m ago
Odds swing
89¢ → 60¢ (-29¢ in 15 min)
55m ago
High volatility
±16.9¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
98¢ → 60¢ (-38¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±13.2¢ swing band
1h ago

How this market resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).