Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? live odds

29%

implied probability

YES 28¢NO 72¢

recent price

+18¢ over the window

+18¢

24h change

$2K

24h volume

$116K

total volume

Sep 20, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±27.4¢ swing band

    33d ago
  • Odds swing

    46¢ → 87¢ (+41¢ in 15 min)

    33d ago
  • High volatility

    ±27.6¢ swing band

    33d ago
  • Odds swing

    3¢ → 35¢ (+32¢ in 15 min)

    33d ago
  • High volatility

    ±19.1¢ swing band

    33d ago
  • High volatility

    ±15.3¢ swing band

    33d ago
  • High volatility

    ±28.6¢ swing band

    33d ago
  • Odds swing

    1¢ → 35¢ (+34¢ in 15 min)

    33d ago
  • High volatility

    ±3.3¢ swing band

    33d ago
  • Odds swing

    28¢ → 37¢ (+9¢ in 15 min)

    33d ago
How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?"?

The market currently prices YES at 28¢ and NO at 72¢, an implied probability of 29% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by September 20, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$116K has been traded in total, $2K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app

Related Politics markets