Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? live odds

27%

implied probability

YES 27¢NO 74¢

recent price

+8¢ over the window

+8¢

24h change

$6K

24h volume

$1.2M

total volume

Apr 30, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±23.1¢ swing band

    32d ago
  • Odds swing

    18¢ → 9¢ (-9¢ in 15 min)

    32d ago
  • High volatility

    ±16.6¢ swing band

    32d ago
  • Odds swing

    22¢ → 35¢ (+13¢ in 15 min)

    32d ago
  • High volatility

    ±18.7¢ swing band

    32d ago
  • Odds swing

    21¢ → 74¢ (+53¢ in 15 min)

    32d ago
  • Odds swing

    70¢ → 21¢ (-49¢ in 15 min)

    32d ago
  • High volatility

    ±28.7¢ swing band

    32d ago
  • High volatility

    ±41.2¢ swing band

    32d ago
  • Odds swing

    81¢ → 3¢ (-78¢ in 15 min)

    32d ago
How this market resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?"?

The market currently prices YES at 27¢ and NO at 74¢, an implied probability of 27% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by April 30, 2027.

How much has been traded on this market?

$1.2M has been traded in total, $6K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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