Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — live odds

Part of Republican Presidential Nominee 2028· see all 35 outcomes →📲 Open in app

12%

implied probability

YES 12¢NO 88¢

recent price

-68¢ over the window

-68¢

24h change

$878

24h volume

$27.9M

total volume

Nov 7, 2028

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
60¢ → 80¢ (+20¢ in 15 min)
2m ago
Volume spike
$2 traded — 16.2× the average
11m ago
High volatility
±24.2¢ swing band
20m ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 80¢ (+68.7¢ in 15 min)
20m ago
Volume spike
$2 traded — 16.9× the average
29m ago
High volatility
±23.1¢ swing band
36m ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 70¢ (+58.6¢ in 15 min)
36m ago
High volatility
±15.7¢ swing band
51m ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 60¢ (+48.5¢ in 15 min)
51m ago
Volume spike
$1 traded — 6.4× the average
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.