Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — live odds

Part of Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place· see all 18 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" is trading at a 89% implied probability, with YES at 89¢ and NO at 12¢. $589K has changed hands so far, $62K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 4, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

89%

implied probability

YES 89¢NO 12¢

recent price

+7¢ over the window

+7¢

24h change

$62K

24h volume

$589K

total volume

Oct 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).