Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — live odds

Part of Brazil Presidential Election· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" is trading at a 78% implied probability, with YES at 78¢ and NO at 22¢. $29.5M has changed hands so far, $2.8M of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 26, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

78%

implied probability

YES 78¢NO 22¢

recent price

-6¢ over the window

-6¢

24h change

$2.8M

24h volume

$29.5M

total volume

Oct 26, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
23¢ → 44¢ (+20.6¢ in 15 min)
128d ago
High volatility
±7¢ swing band
128d ago
Odds swing
24¢ → 66¢ (+41.7¢ in 15 min)
128d ago
High volatility
±24.8¢ swing band
128d ago
Odds swing
19¢ → 36¢ (+17¢ in 15 min)
128d ago
High volatility
±10.2¢ swing band
128d ago
Odds swing
26¢ → 5¢ (-20.7¢ in 15 min)
128d ago
High volatility
±23.5¢ swing band
128d ago
Odds swing
32¢ → 22¢ (-10.2¢ in 15 min)
128d ago
High volatility
±9.1¢ swing band
128d ago

How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).