Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? live odds

14%

implied probability

YES 14¢NO 86¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

24h change

24h volume

$15K

total volume

Sep 20, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±4.8¢ swing band

    19d ago
  • Odds swing

    14¢ → 29¢ (+15.6¢ in 15 min)

    19d ago
  • High volatility

    ±2.4¢ swing band

    33d ago
  • Odds swing

    83¢ → 3¢ (-80.5¢ in 15 min)

    33d ago
  • High volatility

    ±37.9¢ swing band

    33d ago
  • Odds swing

    19¢ → 4¢ (-14.8¢ in 15 min)

    33d ago
  • Odds swing

    98¢ → 15¢ (-82.6¢ in 15 min)

    33d ago
  • High volatility

    ±22.5¢ swing band

    33d ago
  • Odds swing

    0¢ → 87¢ (+86.9¢ in 15 min)

    33d ago
  • High volatility

    ±25¢ swing band

    33d ago
How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?"?

The market currently prices YES at 14¢ and NO at 86¢, an implied probability of 14% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by September 20, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$15K has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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