Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — live odds

Part of Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028· see all 51 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" is trading at a 14% implied probability, with YES at 14¢ and NO at 86¢. $27.1M has changed hands so far, $61K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 7, 2028. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

14%

implied probability

YES 14¢NO 86¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$61K

24h volume

$27.1M

total volume

Nov 7, 2028

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±45.5¢ swing band
75d ago
Odds swing
23¢ → 7¢ (-16.2¢ in 15 min)
75d ago
High volatility
±31¢ swing band
75d ago
Odds swing
81¢ → 98¢ (+17¢ in 15 min)
75d ago
High volatility
±52¢ swing band
75d ago
Odds swing
25¢ → 35¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
75d ago
High volatility
±43.7¢ swing band
75d ago
High volatility
±33.5¢ swing band
77d ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 8¢ (-91.9¢ in 15 min)
77d ago
High volatility
±15.6¢ swing band
77d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.