Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — live odds

Part of Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028· see all 45 outcomes →📲 Open in app

20%

implied probability

YES 20¢NO 80¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$13K

24h volume

$26.5M

total volume

Nov 7, 2028

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±45.5¢ swing band
30d ago
Odds swing
23¢ → 7¢ (-16.2¢ in 15 min)
30d ago
High volatility
±31¢ swing band
30d ago
Odds swing
81¢ → 98¢ (+17¢ in 15 min)
30d ago
High volatility
±52¢ swing band
30d ago
Odds swing
25¢ → 35¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
30d ago
High volatility
±43.7¢ swing band
30d ago
High volatility
±33.5¢ swing band
31d ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 8¢ (-91.9¢ in 15 min)
31d ago
High volatility
±15.6¢ swing band
31d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.