Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? — live odds

Part of GPT-6 released by…?· see all 5 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?" is trading at a 7% implied probability, with YES at 7¢ and NO at 93¢. $42K has changed hands so far, $510 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 21, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

implied probability

YES 7¢NO 93¢

recent price

-8¢ over the window

-8¢

24h change

$510

24h volume

$42K

total volume

Aug 21, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.