Will Helder Barbalho finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? live odds

96%

implied probability

YES 96¢NO

recent price

+9¢ over the window

+9¢

24h change

24h volume

$20K

total volume

Oct 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±24.3¢ swing band

    36d ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.3¢ swing band

    36d ago
  • Odds swing

    100¢ → 92¢ (-7.7¢ in 15 min)

    36d ago
  • High volatility

    ±11.4¢ swing band

    36d ago
  • Odds swing

    0¢ → 96¢ (+96¢ in 15 min)

    36d ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.9¢ swing band

    36d ago
  • Odds swing

    0¢ → 100¢ (+99.7¢ in 15 min)

    36d ago
How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Helder Barbalho finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

The market currently prices YES at 96¢ and NO at 4¢, an implied probability of 96% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by October 4, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$20K has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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