
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? — final odds
"Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?" resolved on August 18, 2026 at a final price of 6¢ YES — a 6% implied probability — after $245K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
6%
implied probability
recent price
-42¢ over the window
-42¢
24h change
$126K
24h volume
$245K
total volume
Aug 18, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Quick answers
How did "Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?" resolve?
This market ended on August 18, 2026 with a final traded price of 6¢ YES (6% implied probability).
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 6¢ — an implied probability of 6%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$245K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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