Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — live odds

Part of Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028· see all 51 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $10.6M has changed hands so far, $35K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 7, 2028. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$35K

24h volume

$10.6M

total volume

Nov 7, 2028

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
2¢ → 66¢ (+63.9¢ in 15 min)
79d ago
Odds swing
24¢ → 2¢ (-22.4¢ in 15 min)
79d ago
High volatility
±5.8¢ swing band
79d ago
Odds swing
88¢ → 60¢ (-28¢ in 15 min)
79d ago
High volatility
±18¢ swing band
79d ago
Odds swing
17¢ → 60¢ (+43.5¢ in 15 min)
79d ago
High volatility
±22.2¢ swing band
79d ago
Odds swing
60¢ → 53¢ (-7.1¢ in 15 min)
79d ago
High volatility
±21.1¢ swing band
79d ago
High volatility
±25.3¢ swing band
79d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.