Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — live odds
42%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$5K
24h volume
$14.6M
total volume
Nov 7, 2028
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 31d ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 39¢ (+27¢ in 15 min)
- 31d ago
High volatility
±7.4¢ swing band
- 31d ago
Odds swing
39¢ → 76¢ (+37.1¢ in 15 min)
- 31d ago
High volatility
±26.6¢ swing band
- 31d ago
Odds swing
37¢ → 66¢ (+28.8¢ in 15 min)
- 31d ago
High volatility
±9.8¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±18.6¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
76¢ → 36¢ (-40¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±23.5¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±24.9¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?
The market currently prices YES at 42¢ and NO at 58¢, an implied probability of 42% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by November 7, 2028.
How much has been traded on this market?
$14.6M has been traded in total, $5K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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