Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? — final odds

Resolved YES · July 30, 2026Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

"Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?" resolved YES on July 30, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $120K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO 0¢

recent price

+4¢ over the window

+4¢

24h change

$15K

24h volume

$120K

total volume

Jul 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±37.9¢ swing band
38d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 10¢ (-89¢ in 15 min)
38d ago
High volatility
±25.9¢ swing band
38d ago
High volatility
±16.4¢ swing band
38d ago
High volatility
±10.1¢ swing band
38d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 9¢ (+8¢ in 15 min)
38d ago
High volatility
±26¢ swing band
38d ago
High volatility
±21.3¢ swing band
38d ago
High volatility
±40.7¢ swing band
38d ago
Odds swing
44¢ → 95¢ (+51¢ in 15 min)
38d ago

How this market resolves

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Quick answers

How did "Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on July 30, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.