Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — live odds

Part of Los Angeles Mayoral Election· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" is trading at a 65% implied probability, with YES at 65¢ and NO at 36¢. $864K has changed hands so far, $32 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

65%

implied probability

YES 65¢NO 36¢

recent price

+41¢ over the window

+41¢

24h change

$32

24h volume

$864K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.